Download A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan by Toshihiko Hara PDF

By Toshihiko Hara

ISBN-10: 4431548092

ISBN-13: 9784431548096

This is the e-book to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the speedily getting older and reducing inhabitants of a well-developed nation, specifically, Japan. The that means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable historic outcome of the demographic transition from excessive start and loss of life charges to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and should be the fastest-shrinking society on the planet, best different Asian international locations which are experiencing an identical drastic alterations. the writer used the ancient facts, compiled via the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 by means of the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social safeguard learn, to teach the earlier and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants lifestyles desk and web copy expense, the consequences of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the ancient relationships between women’s survival charges at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility expense to keep up the alternative point and the recorded overall fertility expense (TFR) have been analyzed. old statement confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and similar to women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival charges may have inspired choice making to reduce the danger of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility cost meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance might stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing remains to be too excessive in Japan. in keeping with the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of eastern society in terms of nationwide funds, social protection reform, family members regulations, immigration regulations and neighborhood polices.

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Extra info for A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan

Sample text

This revealed care costs increase more sharply when fertility decreases than it increases. This curve was historically varied by life expectancy. From Meiji period to Shōwa period and after the World War II, the curve leaned to left and the care cost increased linearly according to the value of fertility. From 1975, the bottom of the curve shifted up higher and its position moved to the right side, at higher fertility with the expanding life expectancy. As for the rising longevity, this analysis indicate from the female life expectancy of 40 years to that of 70 years, the total care cost were stable through the offset between decreasing child care cost and increasing elderly care cost.

1 % in 1975. The chance of survival is more than a doubled and it continues to have an upward trend. In any case, the women’s survival rate increased to an upper limit of 100 % from young to old. This process is cumulative and sequential. Thus, at the early stage of the development, the proportion of women aged 15–64 in a stable population grows relatively faster than the population aged under 15, and slower than the population aged 65 or older. At the same time, the cost of childcare decreases as the cost of elder care increases.

January 2012a. Population projections for Japan 2011–2060. asp. Accessed 15 Feb 2014. NIPSSR. 2012b. Population statistics of Japan 2012. asp. Accessed 24 Feb 2014. NIPSSR. March 2013. Regional population projections for Japan: 2010–2040. ipss. asp. Accessed 15 Feb 2014. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2006. The historical statistics of Japan. 1 vol. Tokyo: Japan Statistical Association. English edition: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau.

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